TippingPoint.Watch
Democratic Risk Dashboard
Current Risk Level
Based on 28 metrics across 10 categories
Democratic Risk
Political Temperature
Category Breakdown
Legal/Institutional
Civic/Cultural
Personal Rights
Operational
Risk Timeline
Evidence Volume
Average Risk Level
Recent Evidence
Filter Evidence
U.N. Human Rights Office Asks Ghana to Halt Deportations of Migrants Sent From U.S.
At least five migrants recently deported to Ghana from the United States had court-ordered protections meant to keep them from the possibility of being tortured if returned to their home countries.
What this evidence shows: Changes to immigration enforcement or border policies
Why it matters: Track enforcement actions and policy shifts that may affect immigrant communities
Impact Analysis
With Comey prosecution, Trump fulfills promise of revenge
President Donald Trump’s predecessors sought to preserve the Justice Department’s independence in political prosecutions. Trump openly intervened in the Comey prosecution.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
Years of clashes with Trump preceded Comey’s indictment
The federal grand jury’s indictment of the former FBI director, which Trump pushed for, marks the latest chapter in the tumultuous relationship between the two men.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
Supreme Court allows Trump officials to freeze billions in foreign aid
The Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to freeze more than $4 billion in foreign aid.
What this evidence shows: Changes to judicial oversight or legal precedents
Why it matters: Track judicial appointments and rulings that may affect checks and balances
Impact Analysis
Brief Comey Indictment Prompts Questions and Criticism
The two-page indictment of James B. Comey, the former F.B.I. director, offered little indication of the evidence that would be presented at a trial. Some legal experts called it flimsy and dangerous.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
4 Takeaways From Trump’s Securing of an Indictment Against Comey
The president’s pressure on the Justice Department to charge one of his highest-profile retribution targets could have profound consequences.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
With Comey Indictment, Trump Gets Retribution but Shatters Norms
A prosecutor’s drive to indict James Comey trampled over the Justice Department’s long tradition of keeping a distance from politics and the White House, and raised the prospect of more arbitrary charges.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
Trump administration calls for radical reform of world’s asylum system
Critics of the plan said they fear it would put vulnerable people at risk of being deported to countries where they could face torture and persecution.
What this evidence shows: Changes to immigration enforcement or border policies
Why it matters: Track enforcement actions and policy shifts that may affect immigrant communities
Impact Analysis
Trump targets domestic terrorists — but only mentions the ‘radical left’
Administration officials on Thursday vowed a focus on ‘left-wing terrorism’ as Trump directed cabinet leaders to investigate political violence.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
Congress is barreling toward a shutdown, despite the perils
Democrats say they won’t back a GOP bill to extend government funding and prevent a shutdown unless Republicans negotiate with them over health care.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
Federal Bureau of Prisons Ends Union Protections for Workers
The union of prison employees condemned the contract’s termination, which is part of the Trump administration’s overhaul of the federal work force.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
Supreme Court Allows Trump to Withhold $4 Billion in Foreign Aid Funding
The court’s conservative majority allowed the president to cut the funding in part because it said his flexibility to engage in foreign affairs outweighed “the potential harm” faced by aid recipients.
What this evidence shows: Changes to judicial oversight or legal precedents
Why it matters: Track judicial appointments and rulings that may affect checks and balances
Impact Analysis
Trump Predicts More Indictments After Comey and Claims It’s Not Revenge
President Trump has made clear that he expects the Justice Department to mete out punishment to his perceived enemies.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
Texas Tech Moves to Limit Academic Discussion to 2 Genders
The university system said faculty must comply with President Trump’s order recognizing only two genders, possibly a first for a major public institution of higher education.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
Trump Administration Asks Supreme Court to Allow End of Birthright Citizenship
Government lawyers asked the justices to clear the way for the president’s executive order ending birthright citizenship.
What this evidence shows: Changes to judicial oversight or legal precedents
Why it matters: Track judicial appointments and rulings that may affect checks and balances
Impact Analysis
Federal judge declines to reinstate inspectors general fired by Trump
The judge said Trump had clearly violated the law in the way he fired the watchdogs, but reinstating them would not matter as he could later lawfully remove them.
What this evidence shows: Changes to judicial oversight or legal precedents
Why it matters: Track judicial appointments and rulings that may affect checks and balances
Impact Analysis
Trump Orders Broad Effort to Root Out Groups He Says Organize Political Violence
President Trump has long maintained that liberal activists and organizations secretly fund political violence. Law enforcement officials say efforts like the antifascist movement are often disparate groups.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
Child Predator in Utah Sentenced to 30 Years in Prison
Carlos Arturo Aparicio Hernandez was sentenced to 360 months’ imprisonment after he extorted sexually explicit images from a child victim.
What this evidence shows: General policy or administrative changes
Why it matters: Continue monitoring for potential democratic backsliding indicators
Impact Analysis
Dallas ICE Shooting Victim, a Detainee, Is Now Fighting for His Life
Miguel Ángel García was critically injured in a shooting at a Dallas ICE facility, where Norlan Guzman-Fuentes was also killed. Early portraits of the victims are emerging.
What this evidence shows: Changes to immigration enforcement or border policies
Why it matters: Track enforcement actions and policy shifts that may affect immigrant communities
Impact Analysis
Federal Forces Set to Arrive in Memphis Next Week, Governor Says
The deployment will eventually include more than a dozen federal agencies, Gov. Bill Lee of Tennessee said, as well as the National Guard.
What this evidence shows: Changes to military or security protocols
Why it matters: Track deployment of federal forces and security policy changes
Impact Analysis
Data sources: 28 metrics • Last updated: 9/29/2025, 12:00:00 AM
This dashboard tracks democratic risk indicators using transparent, source-linked metrics.