TippingPoint.Watch - Democratic Risk Dashboard

TP
TippingPoint.watch

Democratic Risk Assessment

Real-time analysis for informed family decisions

Current Risk (Now)

↗️

Combined objective metrics + political temperature analysis

Cumulative Damage (History)

↗️
5
4
3
2
1
0
1.4 /5
Low Damage

Long-term democratic erosion with decay weighting

Freedom House

↘️ 🟡 📊
68/100
Partly Free
Updated: 1 years ago

EIU Democracy

↘️ 🟡 📊
7.2/10
Flawed democracy
Updated: 1 years ago

Polity IV

↘️ 🟡 📊
+8/+10
Anocracy threshold: +6
Updated: 1 years ago

V-Dem LDI

↘️ 🟡 📊
0.58/1.0
5yr trend: ↓
Updated: 1 years ago

Democracy indices: Freedom House (2024), EIU Democracy Index (2024), Polity Project, V-Dem | ⚠️ Some data is over 1 year old | Real-time data: TippingPoint.Watch evidence analysis

How we score → Last updated: 9/30/2025

📊 How We Calculate Risk

Current Risk Score: 3.6/5

Combines two data tracks:

  • Objective metrics (2.9) - Institutional changes, policy shifts
  • Political temperature (4.1) - Social tension, public sentiment

Cumulative Damage: 1.4/5

Long-term democratic erosion:

  • • Weighted by time decay (60-day half-life)
  • • Includes all 28+ tracked metrics
  • • Shows sustained democratic backsliding

High Risk Level Detected

Current risk level of 3.6/5 indicates significant democratic backsliding indicators. Consider reviewing evidence and monitoring closely.

Category Risk Breakdown

Higher scores indicate greater democratic risk
⚖️

Legal/Institutional

1/4 metrics active (25% coverage)

0.9
/ 5.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
↘️ moderate trend (-0.05)
🏛️

Civic/Cultural

1/2 metrics active (50% coverage)

2.0
/ 5.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
↘️ strong trend (-0.12)
👤

Personal Rights

1/2 metrics active (50% coverage)

2.2
/ 5.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
↘️ strong trend (-0.13)
⚙️

Operational

2/4 metrics active (50% coverage)

1.1
/ 5.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
↘️ moderate trend (-0.06)
5
Active Metrics
12
Total Metrics
44%
Avg Coverage
1.6
Avg Risk

Risk Timeline

Evidence Volume

9/25/2025
17 items
9/27/2025
72 items
9/27/2025
65 items
9/27/2025
65 items
9/27/2025
57 items
9/27/2025
0 items
9/27/2025
70 items

Average Risk Level

9/25/2025
5.0/5
9/27/2025
2.1/5
9/27/2025
0.0/5
9/27/2025
5.0/5
9/27/2025
5.0/5
9/27/2025
0.8/5
9/27/2025
2.8/5

Evidence Timeline

Showing 173 total items organized by date

Filter Evidence

Showing all 173 items

2 days ago

46items
9/27/2025
RED

U.N. Human Rights Office Asks Ghana to Halt Deportations of Migrants Sent From U.S.

At least five migrants recently deported to Ghana from the United States had court-ordered protections meant to keep them from the possibility of being tortured if returned to their home countries.

New York Times Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

With Comey prosecution, Trump fulfills promise of revenge

President Donald Trump’s predecessors sought to preserve the Justice Department’s independence in political prosecutions. Trump openly intervened in the Comey prosecution.

Washington Post Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

Years of clashes with Trump preceded Comey’s indictment

The federal grand jury’s indictment of the former FBI director, which Trump pushed for, marks the latest chapter in the tumultuous relationship between the two men.

Washington Post Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

Supreme Court allows Trump officials to freeze billions in foreign aid

The Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to freeze more than $4 billion in foreign aid.

Washington Post Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

Brief Comey Indictment Prompts Questions and Criticism

The two-page indictment of James B. Comey, the former F.B.I. director, offered little indication of the evidence that would be presented at a trial. Some legal experts called it flimsy and dangerous.

New York Times Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

4 Takeaways From Trump’s Securing of an Indictment Against Comey

The president’s pressure on the Justice Department to charge one of his highest-profile retribution targets could have profound consequences.

New York Times Read Source →

3 days ago

4items
9/27/2025
RED

With Comey Indictment, Trump Gets Retribution but Shatters Norms

A prosecutor’s drive to indict James Comey trampled over the Justice Department’s long tradition of keeping a distance from politics and the White House, and raised the prospect of more arbitrary charges.

New York Times Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

Federal judge declines to reinstate inspectors general fired by Trump

The judge said Trump had clearly violated the law in the way he fired the watchdogs, but reinstating them would not matter as he could later lawfully remove them.

Washington Post Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

Trump Orders Broad Effort to Root Out Groups He Says Organize Political Violence

President Trump has long maintained that liberal activists and organizations secretly fund political violence. Law enforcement officials say efforts like the antifascist movement are often disparate groups.

New York Times Read Source →
9/27/2025
ORANGE

Harris distances herself from Biden as book tour begins amid pro-Palestinian protests

Divisions in the Democratic Party over Israel policy dogged former vice president Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign.

Washington Post Read Source →

Data sources: 28 metrics • Last updated: 2025-09-30

This dashboard tracks democratic risk indicators using transparent, source-linked metrics.