Democratic Risk Assessment
Real-time analysis for informed family decisions
Current Risk (Now)
Combined objective metrics + political temperature analysis
Cumulative Damage (History)
Long-term democratic erosion with decay weighting
Freedom House
EIU Democracy
Polity IV
V-Dem LDI
Democracy indices: Freedom House (2024), EIU Democracy Index (2024), Polity Project, V-Dem | Real-time data: TippingPoint.Watch evidence analysis
📊 How We Calculate Risk
Current Risk Score: 3.6/5
Combines two data tracks:
- • Objective metrics (2.9) - Institutional changes, policy shifts
- • Political temperature (4.1) - Social tension, public sentiment
Cumulative Damage: 1.4/5
Long-term democratic erosion:
- • Weighted by time decay (60-day half-life)
- • Includes all 28+ tracked metrics
- • Shows sustained democratic backsliding
High Risk Level Detected
Current risk level of 3.6/5 indicates significant democratic backsliding indicators. Consider reviewing evidence and monitoring closely.
Category Breakdown
Legal/Institutional
Civic/Cultural
Personal Rights
Operational
Risk Timeline
Evidence Volume
Average Risk Level
Recent Evidence
Filter Evidence
Immigration
U.N. Human Rights Office Asks Ghana to Halt Deportations of Migrants Sent From U.S.
Risk Level: 5/5 Confidence: 90%
Policy
With Comey prosecution, Trump fulfills promise of revenge
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%
Policy
Years of clashes with Trump preceded Comey’s indictment
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%
Legal
Supreme Court allows Trump officials to freeze billions in foreign aid
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%
Policy
Brief Comey Indictment Prompts Questions and Criticism
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%
Policy
4 Takeaways From Trump’s Securing of an Indictment Against Comey
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%
Policy
With Comey Indictment, Trump Gets Retribution but Shatters Norms
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%
Policy
Trump administration calls for radical reform of world’s asylum system
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%
Policy
Trump targets domestic terrorists — but only mentions the ‘radical left’
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%
Policy
Congress is barreling toward a shutdown, despite the perils
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%
Policy
Federal Bureau of Prisons Ends Union Protections for Workers
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%
Legal
Supreme Court Allows Trump to Withhold $4 Billion in Foreign Aid Funding
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%
Policy
Trump Predicts More Indictments After Comey and Claims It’s Not Revenge
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%
Policy
Texas Tech Moves to Limit Academic Discussion to 2 Genders
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%
Legal
Trump Administration Asks Supreme Court to Allow End of Birthright Citizenship
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%
Legal
Federal judge declines to reinstate inspectors general fired by Trump
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%
Policy
Trump Orders Broad Effort to Root Out Groups He Says Organize Political Violence
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%
Policy
Child Predator in Utah Sentenced to 30 Years in Prison
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 70%
Immigration
Dallas ICE Shooting Victim, a Detainee, Is Now Fighting for His Life
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 70%
Policy
Federal Forces Set to Arrive in Memphis Next Week, Governor Says
Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 70%
Data sources: 28 metrics • Last updated: 9/29/2025, 12:00:00 AM
This dashboard tracks democratic risk indicators using transparent, source-linked metrics.