TippingPoint.Watch - Democratic Risk Dashboard

Last updated: 9/23/2025, 6:39:36 AM (LIVE DATA)

Risk Assessment Summary

National Score

3.36 Red

Trend:

Personal Risk Score

2.81 Orange

Current Action

Monitor situation - no immediate action required

Cumulative Damage

0.00 Green

Irreversible damage assessment

Alerts Status

⚠️ TRIGGERED: Marriage/parent recognition rollback, Marriage/parent recognition rollback, Marriage/parent recognition rollback, Marriage/parent recognition rollback, Marriage/parent recognition rollback, Marriage/parent recognition rollback, Marriage/parent recognition rollback, Marriage/parent recognition rollback, Marriage/parent recognition rollback

Risk Metrics & Recent Events

Emergency Powers & Overrides

2.1 Orange
Weight: 1 Range: 1-10

Emergency/extraordinary powers curtailing due process or expanding executive control.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

Semiannual Regulatory Agenda
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

This notice provides the semiannual agenda of the Department of the Interior (Department) rules scheduled for review or development between Spring 2025 and Spring 2026. The Regulatory Flexibility Act and Executive Order 12866 require publication of the agenda.

2025-09-22 60% confidence
Regulatory Agenda
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

The Regulatory Flexibility Act of 1980 and Executive Order 12866 require the semiannual issuance of an inventory of rulemaking actions under development throughout the Department, offering for public review summarized information about forthcoming regulatory actions.

2025-09-22 60% confidence
Semiannual Regulatory Agenda
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

This notice provides the semiannual agenda of the Department of the Interior (Department) rules scheduled for review or development between Spring 2025 and Spring 2026. The Regulatory Flexibility Act and Executive Order 12866 require publication of the agenda.

2025-09-22 60% confidence

Court & Checks Undermining

2.6 Orange
Weight: 1 Range: 1-10

Court-stripping, refusal to comply with rulings, or efforts to bypass judicial review.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

A Florida Home Insurer Was Allowed to Bypass the Courts During Claim Disputes. It Won More Than 90% of the Time.
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

A Florida Home Insurer Was Allowed to Bypass the Courts During Claim Disputes. It Won More Than 90% of the Time.

2025-09-15 60% confidence
Litigation Involving Reproductive Health and Rights in the Federal Courts
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

Litigation Involving Reproductive Health and Rights in the Federal Courts

2025-09-19 60% confidence
Supreme Court Allows Trump to Fire F.T.C. Commissioner
+0.2 proposed

The justices said they will consider whether to overrule a landmark Supreme Court precedent that has limited the president’s ability to fire top officials at the agency.

2025-09-22 70% confidence

Civil Service Purges

1.8 Yellow
Weight: 0.9 Range: 1-10

Loyalty tests/purges of career officials/election admins.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

No recent events affecting this metric.

Speech/Press Restrictions

4.1 Red
Weight: 0.9 Range: 1-10

Viewpoint-targeted censorship or selective government takedown demands.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

The Wary, Warming, Wildly Consequential Alliance of Ocasio-Cortez and Mamdani
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

She was the ‘big sister’ he hoped to impress. He seemed inexperienced to her. Now, they’re the faces of a political movement — and New York is its test case.

2025-09-22 60% confidence
Mamdani to Reschedule WABC Town Hall After Kimmel Suspension Is Reversed
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

Zohran Mamdani, the front-runner in the New York City mayor’s race, had pulled out of the town hall, saying the suspension had sent a chilling message about free speech.

2025-09-22 60% confidence
Zelensky Urges ‘Powerful Pressure on Russia’ at U.N. General Assembly
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

In a social media post, Ukraine’s president pushed leaders gathering in New York to strengthen their efforts to get Moscow to end the war.

2025-09-22 60% confidence

Political Violence Normalization

3.2 Red
Weight: 1 Range: 1-10

Incitement/defense of violence by public figures without consequences.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

New Report: Trump’s Second Term Ushers in Extreme Immigration Overhaul that Threatens Our Democracy
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

New Report: Trump’s Second Term Ushers in Extreme Immigration Overhaul that Threatens Our Democracy

2025-07-23 60% confidence
Flesh-eating maggots spotted 70 miles south of Texas threatens livestock population
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

Flesh-eating maggots spotted 70 miles south of Texas threatens livestock population

2025-09-22 60% confidence
Infighting threatens to derail bills to prevent charter school fraud
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

Infighting threatens to derail bills to prevent charter school fraud

2025-09-12 60% confidence

Minority Targeting in Law/Policy

3.5 Red
Weight: 1 Range: 1-10

Diminishing equal treatment for protected groups.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

Trump to meet with Democratic leaders as government shutdown looms
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

The president is expected to meet this week with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

2025-09-22 60% confidence
Rescinding Regulations Related to Nondiscrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Receiving Federal Financial Assistance
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

Rescinding Regulations Related to Nondiscrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Receiving Federal Financial Assistance

2025-09-22 60% confidence
Rescinding Regulations Related to Nondiscrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Receiving Federal Financial Assistance
+0.08 proposed

Government document affecting minority targeting

2025-09-23 60% confidence

Marriage/Parent Recognition

3.3 Red
Weight: 1 Range: 1-10

Validity of same-sex marriage, parentage, adoption/surrogacy orders.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

Why colleges must track, support student parents
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

Why colleges must track, support student parents

2025-09-17 60% confidence
Take a deep breath — marriage equality is probably here to stay
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

Take a deep breath — marriage equality is probably here to stay

2025-09-11 60% confidence
The government wants more people to breastfeed. Experts say paid parental leave could help.
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

The government wants more people to breastfeed. Experts say paid parental leave could help.

2025-09-12 60% confidence

Healthcare Privacy Access

2.2 Orange
Weight: 0.8 Range: 1-10

Government access to medical records beyond due process.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

Fierce Healthcare
+0.07 proposed

Fierce Healthcare

2025-09-23 60% confidence
Opinion: Trump’s health and the medicalization of American politics
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

Opinion: Trump’s health and the medicalization of American politics

2025-09-22 60% confidence
STAT+: As medical AI use grows, industry payments to providers remain opaque
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

STAT+: As medical AI use grows, industry payments to providers remain opaque

2025-09-22 60% confidence

Policing/Military for Civil Control

1.8 Yellow
Weight: 0.9 Range: 1-10

Guard/military deployments for domestic policing; mass detentions.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

Ilia, young Russian dissident facing never-ending detention
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

Ilia, young Russian dissident facing never-ending detention

2025-07-14 60% confidence
California bans most law enforcement officers from wearing masks during operations
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

California bans most law enforcement officers from wearing masks during operations

2025-09-22 60% confidence
2 state police officers overdose on fentanyl during drug seizure
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

2 state police officers overdose on fentanyl during drug seizure

2025-09-22 60% confidence

Financial/Platform Exclusion

1.5 Yellow
Weight: 0.7 Range: 1-10

Targeted freezes/denials of banking or platform services.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

LAUSD joins districts across the state in planning for financial literacy education
+0.15000000000000002 proposed

LAUSD joins districts across the state in planning for financial literacy education

2025-09-17 60% confidence

Cumulative Democratic Damage

6.2 Unbanded
Weight: 1 Range: 1-10

Irreversible institutional changes and cumulative erosion of democratic norms.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

No recent events affecting this metric.

Institutional Erosion

5.8 Unbanded
Weight: 1 Range: 1-10

Long-term damage to democratic institutions and checks/balances.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

No recent events affecting this metric.

Constitutional Crisis Indicators

4.1 Red
Weight: 1 Range: 1-10

Signs of constitutional breakdown or emergency powers abuse.

Recent Events Affecting This Metric

No recent events affecting this metric.

Recent Evidence (LIVE DATA)

Chronological log of recent evidence entries affecting risk assessment.

Fierce Healthcare

proposed

Fierce Healthcare

Date: 2025-09-23 Impact: +0.07 Confidence: 60% Source: Auto-collected from https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/ - web-scraped

Semiannual Regulatory Agenda

proposed

This notice provides the semiannual agenda of the Department of the Interior (Department) rules scheduled for review or development between Spring 2025 and Spring 2026. The Regulatory Flexibility Act and Executive Order 12866 require publication of the agenda.

Date: 2025-09-22 Impact: +0.15000000000000002 Confidence: 60% Source: Auto-collected from Federal Register API - government_document

Regulatory Agenda

proposed

The Regulatory Flexibility Act of 1980 and Executive Order 12866 require the semiannual issuance of an inventory of rulemaking actions under development throughout the Department, offering for public review summarized information about forthcoming regulatory actions.

Date: 2025-09-22 Impact: +0.15000000000000002 Confidence: 60% Source: Auto-collected from Federal Register API - government_document

Ilia, young Russian dissident facing never-ending detention

proposed

Ilia, young Russian dissident facing never-ending detention

Date: 2025-07-14 Impact: +0.15000000000000002 Confidence: 60% Source: Auto-collected from American Immigration Council - rss

New Report: Trump’s Second Term Ushers in Extreme Immigration Overhaul that Threatens Our Democracy

proposed

New Report: Trump’s Second Term Ushers in Extreme Immigration Overhaul that Threatens Our Democracy

Date: 2025-07-23 Impact: +0.15000000000000002 Confidence: 60% Source: Auto-collected from American Immigration Council - rss

California bans most law enforcement officers from wearing masks during operations

proposed

California bans most law enforcement officers from wearing masks during operations

Date: 2025-09-22 Impact: +0.15000000000000002 Confidence: 60% Source: Auto-collected from Border Report - rss

Flesh-eating maggots spotted 70 miles south of Texas threatens livestock population

proposed

Flesh-eating maggots spotted 70 miles south of Texas threatens livestock population

Date: 2025-09-22 Impact: +0.15000000000000002 Confidence: 60% Source: Auto-collected from Border Report - rss

2 state police officers overdose on fentanyl during drug seizure

proposed

2 state police officers overdose on fentanyl during drug seizure

Date: 2025-09-22 Impact: +0.15000000000000002 Confidence: 60% Source: Auto-collected from Border Report - rss

Alleged meth trafficker rams police vehicle, 2 cars during flight

proposed

Alleged meth trafficker rams police vehicle, 2 cars during flight

Date: 2025-09-22 Impact: +0.15000000000000002 Confidence: 60% Source: Auto-collected from Border Report - rss

Law enforcement summit focuses on human and sex trafficking on border

proposed

Law enforcement summit focuses on human and sex trafficking on border

Date: 2025-09-22 Impact: +0.15000000000000002 Confidence: 60% Source: Auto-collected from Border Report - rss