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Democratic Risk Assessment

Real-time analysis for informed family decisions

Current Risk (Now)

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Current Risk combines objective metrics (institutional changes, policy shifts) and political temperature (social tension, public sentiment) using weighted aggregation. Higher scores indicate greater democratic backsliding indicators.

Cumulative Damage (History)

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Cumulative Damage measures long-term democratic erosion using time-weighted decay (60-day half-life). Includes all 28+ tracked metrics and shows sustained democratic backsliding over time.

Freedom House

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Freedom House scores countries on political rights and civil liberties. Scale: 0-100 (100 = most free). Categories: 80-100 = Free (green), 60-79 = Partly Free (orange), 0-59 = Not Free (red). Based on annual assessments of electoral processes, political pluralism, government functioning, and civil society.
84/100
Free
Updated: 09-26-2025

EIU Democracy

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Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index measures electoral process, government functioning, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties. Scale: 0-10 (10 = full democracy). Categories: 8-10 = Full Democracy (green), 6-7.9 = Flawed Democracy (orange), 4-5.9 = Hybrid (red), 0-3.9 = Authoritarian (red).
7.85/10
Flawed democracy
Updated: 09-26-2025

Polity IV

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Polity IV measures regime authority characteristics. Scale: -10 to +10 (+10 = full democracy, -10 = full autocracy). Categories: +6 to +10 = Democracy (green), -5 to +5 = Anocracy (orange), -10 to -6 = Autocracy (red).
0/+10
Anocracy
Updated: 09-26-2025

V-Dem LDI

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Varieties of Democracy Liberal Democracy Index combines electoral, liberal, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian democracy. Scale: 0-1 (1 = full liberal democracy). Categories: 0.67-1.0 = High Liberal Democracy (green), 0.34-0.66 = Medium (orange), 0-0.33 = Low (red).
0.75/1.0
High Liberal Democracy
Updated: 09-26-2025
How we score → • Last updated: 10-09-2025

High Risk Level Detected

Current risk level of 3.1/5 indicates significant democratic backsliding indicators. Consider reviewing evidence and monitoring closely.

Category Risk Breakdown

⚖️

Legal/Institutional

1/4 metrics active (25% coverage)

0.9
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Measures constitutional changes, judicial independence, rule of law, and institutional integrity. Higher scores indicate erosion of legal frameworks and democratic institutions.
/ 5.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
↘️ weak trend (-0.04)
🏛️

Civic/Cultural

1/2 metrics active (50% coverage)

2.0
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Tracks civil society health, media freedom, academic freedom, and cultural expression. Higher scores suggest suppression of civic engagement and cultural diversity.
/ 5.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
↘️ moderate trend (-0.09)
👤

Personal Rights

1/2 metrics active (50% coverage)

2.2
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Monitors individual freedoms, privacy rights, due process, and protection from arbitrary state action. Higher scores indicate threats to personal liberties.
/ 5.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
↘️ strong trend (-0.11)
⚙️

Operational

2/4 metrics active (50% coverage)

1.1
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Assesses government transparency, accountability mechanisms, electoral integrity, and administrative efficiency. Higher scores suggest democratic process degradation.
/ 5.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
↘️ moderate trend (-0.05)
5
Active Metrics
12
Total Metrics
44%
Avg Coverage
1.6
Avg Risk

Risk Timeline

ℹ️

Limited data coverage: This timeline shows data from September 2025 onwards. Missing 246 days of data from January 20, 2025 (Trump inauguration) to September 23, 2025 (first evidence entry).

The site is still being developed and as a result only the days in September are counted for now. We are working on fetching the rest of the data once we make sure that the most limited dataset is working as we need it to.

Top 10 Evidence Volume Days

#1 9/23/2025
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Example directive referencing content takedowns Additionally, supreme court issues ruling on trump’s power to fire ftc commissioner without cause. supreme court allows trump to fire f.t.c. commissioner.
89 items
#2 9/27/2025
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U.N. Human Rights Office Asks Ghana to Halt Deportations of Migrants Sent From U.S. Additionally, with comey prosecution, trump fulfills promise of revenge. years of clashes with trump preceded comey’s indictment.
80 items
#3 10/9/2025
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Alleged Member of Chicago Street Gang Charged with Soliciting the Murder of Senior Law Enforcement Official Involved in ... Additionally, trump builds case for deploying national guard to chicago, portland. local leader of new york capital region chamber of commerce charged with attempted enticement of a minor.
64 items
#4 9/25/2025
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Journalist Held by ICE Faces ‘Imminent’ Deportation, His Lawyers Say Additionally, justice dept. official pushes prosecutors to investigate george soros’s foundation. journalist held by ice faces ‘imminent’ deportation, his lawyers say.
39 items
#5 9/26/2025
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Sample Temperature Evidence - Social Division
1 items

Top 10 Risk Level Days

#1 9/25/2025
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Journalist Held by ICE Faces ‘Imminent’ Deportation, His Lawyers Say Additionally, justice dept. official pushes prosecutors to investigate george soros’s foundation. journalist held by ice faces ‘imminent’ deportation, his lawyers say.
3.6/5
#2 9/27/2025
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U.N. Human Rights Office Asks Ghana to Halt Deportations of Migrants Sent From U.S. Additionally, with comey prosecution, trump fulfills promise of revenge. years of clashes with trump preceded comey’s indictment.
2.8/5
#3 10/9/2025
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Alleged Member of Chicago Street Gang Charged with Soliciting the Murder of Senior Law Enforcement Official Involved in ... Additionally, trump builds case for deploying national guard to chicago, portland. local leader of new york capital region chamber of commerce charged with attempted enticement of a minor.
2.2/5
#4 9/26/2025
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Sample Temperature Evidence - Social Division
0.5/5
#5 9/23/2025
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Example directive referencing content takedowns Additionally, supreme court issues ruling on trump’s power to fire ftc commissioner without cause. supreme court allows trump to fire f.t.c. commissioner.
0.2/5

Evidence Timeline

Showing 232 total items organized by date

Filter Evidence

Showing all 232 items

Today

21items
10/9/2025
RED

Alleged Member of Chicago Street Gang Charged with Soliciting the Murder of Senior Law Enforcement Official Involved in “Operation Midway Blitz”

“Putting a price on the life of a law enforcement officer is an attack on the rule of law,” said U.S. Attorney Andrew S. Boutros.

Department of Justice Read Source →
10/9/2025
RED

Trump builds case for deploying National Guard to Chicago, Portland

The president said he would pursue designating antifa a “foreign terrorist organization” and called for Democratic officials in Chicago to be jailed.

Washington Post Read Source →
10/9/2025
RED

Local Leader of New York Capital Region Chamber of Commerce Charged with Attempted Enticement of a Minor

Peter Bardunias, 59, of Clifton Park, New York, was charged today with attempting to entice a minor to engage in prohibited sexual activity. Acting United States Attorney John A. Sarcone III and Craig L. Tremaroli, Special Agent in Charge of the Albany Field Office of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), made the announcement.

Department of Justice Read Source →
10/9/2025
RED

Gervais Man Charged with Felony Assault of Federal Law Enforcement Officer Near Local ICE Office

A Gervais man made his first appearance in federal court today after assaulting a federal officer near a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) office in South Portland.

Department of Justice Read Source →
10/9/2025
RED

Trump keeps talking about the Insurrection Act. What is it?

President Donald Trump floated the possibility of using the Insurrection Act after Oregon and Illinois objected to his National Guard deployments. Here’s what the law says.

Washington Post Read Source →
10/9/2025
RED

Trump Says Chicago Mayor and Illinois Governor Should Be Jailed Amid National Guard Tensions

As President Trump looks to deploy the military on the streets of American cities, he is lashing out at political foes.

New York Times Read Source →

Older

29items
9/27/2025
RED

U.N. Human Rights Office Asks Ghana to Halt Deportations of Migrants Sent From U.S.

At least five migrants recently deported to Ghana from the United States had court-ordered protections meant to keep them from the possibility of being tortured if returned to their home countries.

New York Times Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

With Comey prosecution, Trump fulfills promise of revenge

President Donald Trump’s predecessors sought to preserve the Justice Department’s independence in political prosecutions. Trump openly intervened in the Comey prosecution.

Washington Post Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

Years of clashes with Trump preceded Comey’s indictment

The federal grand jury’s indictment of the former FBI director, which Trump pushed for, marks the latest chapter in the tumultuous relationship between the two men.

Washington Post Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

Supreme Court allows Trump officials to freeze billions in foreign aid

The Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to freeze more than $4 billion in foreign aid.

Washington Post Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

Brief Comey Indictment Prompts Questions and Criticism

The two-page indictment of James B. Comey, the former F.B.I. director, offered little indication of the evidence that would be presented at a trial. Some legal experts called it flimsy and dangerous.

New York Times Read Source →
9/27/2025
RED

4 Takeaways From Trump’s Securing of an Indictment Against Comey

The president’s pressure on the Justice Department to charge one of his highest-profile retribution targets could have profound consequences.

New York Times Read Source →

Data sources: 28 metrics • Last updated: 10-09-2025

This dashboard tracks democratic risk indicators using transparent, source-linked metrics.