TippingPoint.Watch - Democratic Risk Dashboard

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Democratic Risk Assessment

Real-time analysis for informed family decisions

Current Risk (Now)

↗️

Combined objective metrics + political temperature analysis

Cumulative Damage (History)

↗️
5
4
3
2
1
0
1.4 /5
Low Damage

Long-term democratic erosion with decay weighting

Freedom House

↘️ 🟢 📊
68/100
Partly Free
Updated: 1 years ago
ℹ️

EIU Democracy

↘️ 🟢 📊
7.2/10
Flawed democracy
Updated: 1 years ago
ℹ️

Polity IV

↘️ 🟡 📊
+8/+10
Anocracy threshold: +6
Updated: 1 years ago
ℹ️

V-Dem LDI

↘️ 🟡 📊
0.58/1.0
5yr trend: ↓
Updated: 1 years ago
ℹ️

Democracy indices: Freedom House (2024), EIU Democracy Index (2024), Polity Project, V-Dem | Real-time data: TippingPoint.Watch evidence analysis

How we score → Last updated: 9/29/2025

📊 How We Calculate Risk

Current Risk Score: 3.6/5

Combines two data tracks:

  • Objective metrics (2.9) - Institutional changes, policy shifts
  • Political temperature (4.1) - Social tension, public sentiment

Cumulative Damage: 1.4/5

Long-term democratic erosion:

  • • Weighted by time decay (60-day half-life)
  • • Includes all 28+ tracked metrics
  • • Shows sustained democratic backsliding

High Risk Level Detected

Current risk level of 3.6/5 indicates significant democratic backsliding indicators. Consider reviewing evidence and monitoring closely.

Category Breakdown

Legal/Institutional

-0.05
moderate
GREEN
0.9 1/4 metrics active
Active metrics: 1
Total metrics: 4
Coverage: 25%
Trend period: 2 days (7 data points)
Data points: 7

Civic/Cultural

↘️ -0.12
strong
ORANGE
2.0 1/2 metrics active
Active metrics: 1
Total metrics: 2
Coverage: 50%
Trend period: 2 days (7 data points)
Data points: 7

Personal Rights

↘️ -0.13
strong
ORANGE
2.2 1/2 metrics active
Active metrics: 1
Total metrics: 2
Coverage: 50%
Trend period: 2 days (7 data points)
Data points: 7

Operational

-0.06
moderate
YELLOW
1.1 2/4 metrics active
Active metrics: 2
Total metrics: 4
Coverage: 50%
Trend period: 2 days (7 data points)
Data points: 7

Risk Timeline

Evidence Volume

9/25/2025
17 items
9/27/2025
72 items
9/27/2025
65 items
9/27/2025
65 items
9/27/2025
57 items
9/27/2025
0 items
9/27/2025
70 items

Average Risk Level

9/25/2025
5.0/5
9/27/2025
2.1/5
9/27/2025
0.0/5
9/27/2025
5.0/5
9/27/2025
5.0/5
9/27/2025
0.8/5
9/27/2025
2.8/5

Recent Evidence

Sorted by risk level • Showing 20 of 173 total items

Filter Evidence

Showing all 173 items
CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Immigration

U.N. Human Rights Office Asks Ghana to Halt Deportations of Migrants Sent From U.S.

Risk Level: 5/5 Confidence: 90%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

With Comey prosecution, Trump fulfills promise of revenge

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Years of clashes with Trump preceded Comey’s indictment

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Supreme Court allows Trump officials to freeze billions in foreign aid

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Brief Comey Indictment Prompts Questions and Criticism

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

4 Takeaways From Trump’s Securing of an Indictment Against Comey

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

With Comey Indictment, Trump Gets Retribution but Shatters Norms

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 90%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Trump administration calls for radical reform of world’s asylum system

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Trump targets domestic terrorists — but only mentions the ‘radical left’

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Congress is barreling toward a shutdown, despite the perils

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Federal Bureau of Prisons Ends Union Protections for Workers

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Supreme Court Allows Trump to Withhold $4 Billion in Foreign Aid Funding

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Trump Predicts More Indictments After Comey and Claims It’s Not Revenge

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Texas Tech Moves to Limit Academic Discussion to 2 Genders

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Trump Administration Asks Supreme Court to Allow End of Birthright Citizenship

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Federal judge declines to reinstate inspectors general fired by Trump

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Trump Orders Broad Effort to Root Out Groups He Says Organize Political Violence

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 80%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Child Predator in Utah Sentenced to 30 Years in Prison

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 70%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Immigration

Dallas ICE Shooting Victim, a Detainee, Is Now Fighting for His Life

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 70%

CRITICAL
9/27/2025

Federal Forces Set to Arrive in Memphis Next Week, Governor Says

Risk Level: 4/5 Confidence: 70%

Showing 1-20 of 173 items
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Data sources: 28 metrics • Last updated: 9/29/2025, 12:00:00 AM

This dashboard tracks democratic risk indicators using transparent, source-linked metrics.