Democratic Risk Assessment
Tracking the Tipping Points of Democracy
Current Risk (Now)
Each article is analyzed by our data models across 4 categories: Legal/Institutional (30%), Civic/Cultural (25%), Personal Rights (30%), and Operational (15%). Overall risk is calculated as a weighted average of these independent category scores. Recent events (past 2-3 months) are weighted most heavily using 60-day half-life decay, providing a planning horizon for families.
2.4 /5
Elevated Minor democratic tensions emerging. Some institutional or rights concerns developing.
Action: Begin monitoring situation more closely. Stay informed about political developments.
Cumulative Damage (History)
Measures long-term democratic erosion using the same category-weighted scoring (Legal 30%, Civic 25%, Personal 30%, Operational 15%) with 180-day half-life decay. Institutional changes persist longer - events from 6 months ago still carry significant weight. Shows sustained democratic backsliding across all four categories over time.
1.4 /5
Low Damage Democratic institutions functioning normally. No significant concerns detected.
Action: Continue normal life. Maintain awareness of current events.
Freedom House
Freedom House scores countries on political rights and civil liberties. Scale: 0-100 (100 = most free). Categories: 80-100 = Free (green), 60-79 = Partly Free (orange), 0-59 = Not Free (red). Based on annual assessments of electoral processes, political pluralism, government functioning, and civil society.
84/100
Free
EIU Democracy
Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index measures electoral process, government functioning, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties. Scale: 0-10 (10 = full democracy). Categories: 8-10 = Full Democracy (green), 6-7.9 = Flawed Democracy (orange), 4-5.9 = Hybrid (red), 0-3.9 = Authoritarian (red).
7.85/10
Flawed democracy
Polity IV
0/+10
Anocracy
V-Dem LDI
0.75/1.0
High Liberal Democracy
Recent High-Impact Events by Category
Shows the most significant events from the past 21 days for each democratic health category. Events are ranked by their category-specific impact score (higher scores indicate more severe threats). Click any event for full details.
Legal/Institutional
Measures constitutional changes, judicial independence, rule of law, and institutional integrity. Higher scores indicate erosion of legal frameworks and democratic institutions.
Stable 0.8 / 5.0
Recent Events:
4.8
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Armed US immigration agents drive off with toddler after arrest of father
Nov 6 • The Guardian
4.8
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Supreme Court allows Trump to end policy of self-identifying gender on passports
Nov 6 • Washington Post
4.6
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Lawmakers Seek Investigation of Judges Who Criticized Supreme Court
Nov 6 • New York Times
Civic/Cultural
Tracks civil society health, media freedom, academic freedom, and cultural expression. Higher scores suggest suppression of civic engagement and cultural diversity.
Elevated 1.9 / 5.0
Recent Events:
4.6
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Armed US immigration agents drive off with toddler after arrest of father
Nov 6 • The Guardian
4.5
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
4.5
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
What Tuesday’s elections mean for the future of abortion rights
Nov 6 • The Guardian
Personal Rights
Monitors individual freedoms, privacy rights, due process, and protection from arbitrary state action. Higher scores indicate threats to personal liberties.
Concerning 2.1 / 5.0
Recent Events:
5.0
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Armed US immigration agents drive off with toddler after arrest of father
Nov 6 • The Guardian
5.0
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
4.9
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Supreme Court allows Trump to end policy of self-identifying gender on passports
Nov 6 • Washington Post
Operational
Assesses government transparency, accountability mechanisms, electoral integrity, and administrative efficiency. Higher scores suggest democratic process degradation.
Elevated 1.2 / 5.0
Recent Events:
4.5
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
4.3
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
4.2
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
FAA Warns of Air Traffic Cuts Friday if Government Shutdown Continues
Nov 6 • New York Times
Risk Timeline
Shows days with the most concerning articles (2.0+ risk, 60%+ confidence) and highest average risk scores since January 20, 2025. Hover over the '?' icon on any date to see summaries of that day's events.
Top 10 Evidence Volume Days
Loading top 10 days...
Top 10 Risk Level Days
Loading top 10 days...
Evidence Timeline
Displays articles that exceed our quality threshold: moderate to high democratic risk (2.5+ out of 5) and reliable sourcing (60%+ confidence). Lower-risk articles are still used in calculations but not shown here.
Loading evidence...
Data sources: 28 metrics • Last updated: 11-06-2025
This dashboard tracks democratic risk indicators using transparent, source-linked metrics.