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Democratic Risk Assessment

We track democratic threats and calculate risk scores from news sources, government actions, and policy changes. Every day, we analyze articles and events to assess their impact on democracy, civil rights, and democratic institutions.

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Current Risk (Now)

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Current Risk measures how fast democratic risk is changing right now (velocity/acceleration). It combines: (1) Rate of change comparing 7-day vs 30-day averages, (2) Activity intensity from recent event volume and severity. This makes it highly responsive to current political heat and tension, showing whether risk is accelerating or decelerating.

Cumulative Damage (History)

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Cumulative Damage measures where democracy stands overall (position/state) since Jan 20, 2025. It uses category-weighted aggregation with 360‑day exponential decay, showing long‑term erosion across Legal/Institutional, Civic/Cultural, Personal Rights, and Operational categories. This provides a stable baseline that reflects accumulated damage, not daily fluctuations.
How we score risk Last updated: 12/24/2025 Sources: Freedom House, EIU, Polity IV, V-Dem

Recent High-Impact Events by Category

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Shows the most significant events from the past 21 days for each democratic health category. Events are ranked by their category-specific impact score (higher scores indicate more severe threats). Click any event for full details.

Legal/Institutional

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Measures constitutional changes, judicial independence, rule of law, and institutional integrity. Higher scores indicate erosion of legal frameworks and democratic institutions.
Stable 0.0 / 5.0

No recent high-risk events in this category

Civic/Cultural

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Tracks civil society health, media freedom, academic freedom, and cultural expression. Higher scores suggest suppression of civic engagement and cultural diversity.
Stable 0.0 / 5.0

No recent high-risk events in this category

Personal Rights

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Monitors individual freedoms, privacy rights, due process, and protection from arbitrary state action. Higher scores indicate threats to personal liberties.
Stable 0.0 / 5.0

No recent high-risk events in this category

Operational

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Assesses government transparency, accountability mechanisms, electoral integrity, and administrative efficiency. Higher scores suggest democratic process degradation.
Stable 0.0 / 5.0

No recent high-risk events in this category

Risk Timeline

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Shows days with the most concerning articles (2.0+ risk, 60%+ confidence) and highest average risk scores since January 20, 2025. Hover over the '?' icon on any date to see summaries of that day's events.

Top 10 Evidence Volume Days

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Top 10 Risk Level Days

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Evidence Timeline

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Displays articles that exceed our quality threshold: moderate to high democratic risk (2.5+ out of 5) and reliable sourcing (60%+ confidence). Lower-risk articles are still used in calculations but not shown here.
View All Evidence →

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Data sources: 28 metrics • Last updated: 12-24-2025

This dashboard tracks democratic risk indicators using transparent, source-linked metrics.