Democratic Risk Assessment
We track democratic threats and calculate risk scores from news sources, government actions, and policy changes. Every day, we analyze articles and events to assess their impact on democracy, civil rights, and democratic institutions.
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Current Risk (Now)
Current Risk measures how fast democratic risk is changing right now (velocity/acceleration). It combines: (1) Rate of change comparing 7-day vs 30-day averages, (2) Activity intensity from recent event volume and severity. This makes it highly responsive to current political heat and tension, showing whether risk is accelerating or decelerating.
2.9 /5
Concerning Significant democratic concerns. Multiple indicators showing institutional weakening or rights erosion.
Action: Develop contingency plans. Assess personal and family vulnerability. Consider options.
Cumulative Damage (History)
Cumulative Damage measures where democracy stands overall (position/state) since Jan 20, 2025. It uses category-weighted aggregation with 360‑day exponential decay, showing long‑term erosion across Legal/Institutional, Civic/Cultural, Personal Rights, and Operational categories. This provides a stable baseline that reflects accumulated damage, not daily fluctuations.
2.7 /5
Moderate Damage Significant democratic concerns. Multiple indicators showing institutional weakening or rights erosion.
Action: Develop contingency plans. Assess personal and family vulnerability. Consider options.
Recent High-Impact Events by Category
Shows the most significant events from the past 21 days for each democratic health category. Events are ranked by their category-specific impact score (higher scores indicate more severe threats). Click any event for full details.
Legal/Institutional
Measures constitutional changes, judicial independence, rule of law, and institutional integrity. Higher scores indicate erosion of legal frameworks and democratic institutions.
Stable 0.0 / 5.0
Recent Events:
4.7
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Judge blocks Trump administration’s stripping of Haitians’ protected status
Feb 3 • The Guardian
4.5
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
ICE Is Watching You
Feb 3 • New York Times
4.5
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Civic/Cultural
Tracks civil society health, media freedom, academic freedom, and cultural expression. Higher scores suggest suppression of civic engagement and cultural diversity.
Stable 0.0 / 5.0
Recent Events:
4.5
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
The criminalizing of protest and dissent has a long history in America
Feb 3 • The Guardian
4.5
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Judge Bars Further Changes to George Washington’s Philadelphia House
Feb 3 • New York Times
4.3
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
ICE Is Watching You
Feb 3 • New York Times
Personal Rights
Monitors individual freedoms, privacy rights, due process, and protection from arbitrary state action. Higher scores indicate threats to personal liberties.
Stable 0.0 / 5.0
Recent Events:
4.8
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
4.8
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
ICE Is Watching You
Feb 3 • New York Times
4.6
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Operational
Assesses government transparency, accountability mechanisms, electoral integrity, and administrative efficiency. Higher scores suggest democratic process degradation.
Stable 0.0 / 5.0
Recent Events:
4.5
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
4.2
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Immigration Officers in Minneapolis Will Wear Body Cameras, Noem Says
Feb 3 • New York Times
4.2
Category impact score: Indicates how much this event affects this specific category of democratic health (0-5 scale, where higher numbers indicate more concerning developments).
Bill and Hillary Clinton agree to testify in House Epstein investigation
Feb 3 • The Guardian
Risk Timeline
Shows days with the most concerning articles (2.0+ risk, 60%+ confidence) and highest average risk scores since January 20, 2025. Hover over the '?' icon on any date to see summaries of that day's events.
Top 10 Evidence Volume Days
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Top 10 Risk Level Days
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Evidence Timeline
Displays articles that exceed our quality threshold: moderate to high democratic risk (2.5+ out of 5) and reliable sourcing (60%+ confidence). Lower-risk articles are still used in calculations but not shown here.
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Data sources: 28 metrics • Last updated: 02-03-2026
This dashboard tracks democratic risk indicators using transparent, source-linked metrics.